中国从“改革开放”到“一带一路”
基恩·博里奇 【阿尔巴尼亚】
阿尔巴尼亚历史研究中心学者
一 引言
中国过去40年迅速发展的城市化是以大量农村剩余劳动力涌入城市为主要特点的。中国城市化水平从1978年的17.9%增至2015年的56.1%，年增长率约1%。2011年，城市人口首度超过农村人口，达到6.8亿（联合国经济和社会事务部，2012年），其中包括约1.23亿农民工（中国国务院发展研究中心项目组，2010年）。过去30年，中国经历了快速的经济增长，成为世界增速最快的经济体，年均经济增长率约9%。
2013年对中国外交而言是不平凡的一年。世界经历了重大变革和深刻调整，涉及增长模式的转变、区域贸易安排机制、地缘政治格局演变和国际治理体系。中国外交采取主动，根据国际环境新的趋势和中国国内改革和发展议程，提出新的理念，开拓新的领域。中国正在探索一条具有中国特色的大国外交之路（中国外交部长王毅，2014年3月）。
二 中国与全球治理新时代
全球治理涉及如何治理世界的问题，即在没有一个占据支配地位的中央权威或世界政府的情况下，如何处理全球性问题？如何确保世界的秩序和稳定？在理解全球治理这一概念时，首先需要回答一下问题：什么是全球性？什么是治理？治理的概念在哪些方面与传统的政治和政府的概念有所不同？我们今天为什么要研究全球治理？
“全球性”这一词语通常指超越国际秩序或国家间体系的情形，涉及广泛而不同的世界事务主要参与者——除了国家，还包括个人、社会组织、国际组织等等。什么是“治理”？也许关于“治理”最为权威的定义来自全球治理委员会编写的一份报告。该委员会由来自世界各地的26位杰出人士组成，主席为瑞典前首相英瓦尔·卡尔松和前英联邦秘书长斯里达斯。这一题为“我们的全球家园”的报告于1995年发布，其中对全球背景下的治理定义如下：
“全球治理是包括公共和私人领域的个人和机构管理其共同事务的多种方式的总和。这是一个持续的进程，彼此冲突和不同的利益可在其中进行调节，同时可在其中采取合作行动。全球治理包括授权实施强制执行的正式机构和体制，也包括人民和机构认可的或认为符合其利益的非正式安排机制。”
我们需要记住的一点是，中国可以成为一个问题，也可以成为一个解决方案；中国可能仍旧对制度性的多边主义存有强烈的保留态度，也可能并不愿意放弃在规则制定和实施上的主权控制。
自20世纪70年代末以来，中国已经放开了大多数价格，对农业实施了非集体化经营，并融入了世界市场。这些变化推动了经济前所未有的增长——人均国内生产总值从1978年的674美元增加至2004年的5086美元。取得这一成功的因素是什么？第一，一些人士关注于中国经济在改革前的单元型组织结构。中国这一经济体此前是由平行的、多样的省级经济体构成，而不是单一的全国性的层级结构。当引入市场机制后，这一体系避免了混乱并促进了竞争。第二，一些人士提出，政治上的权力下放鼓励了地方的改革试验，使得新的理念从基层迸发出来。第三，一些人士认为，权力下放对中央政府形成了政治制约，限制了争利行为，并使得投资者相信改革将会持续。第四，一些人士指出，财政权下放极大地激发了地方官员促进经济增长的积极性。最后，一些人士认为，权力下放有助于强化对企业的预算约束，从而迫使它们进行重组改制。
中国经济自1978年开始，以一种特别有利于市场化的方式进行了构建——至少与其北方的共产主义邻邦相比而言。在苏联，地区经济体是相互依存、专一领域的单元，在国家分工体系中扮演不同角色并由中央计划部门加以协调。因为担心军事入侵，毛泽东鼓励地方自给自足，将大量计划和行政管理权力下放给省级干部。
与其他社会主义国家相比，中国的经济管理1978年之后相对非中央集权化。在20世纪80年代，中国的成功与更加集权化的苏联失败的改革形成对比。然而，到20世纪89年末，苏联在政治上的权力下放明显超过了中国。波罗的海的加盟共和国竞相独立，以至于到1991年初，戈尔巴乔夫努力挽救苏联保持一个松散的邦联整体。在1990年实行政党在地区的自由选举后，俄罗斯在政治上也较中国更为非集权化，各地区的经济政策各不相同。如果权力下放可以解释为什么20世纪80年代改革在中国比在苏联进展得更好，那么它却无法解释在20世纪90年代中国比俄罗斯发展得更好。相反的结局本应发生。管理权的下放在20世纪80年代与改革同时发生，一部分是因为权力下放本身就是邓小平及其支持者倡导的一项改革举措，另一部分是因为邓小平力图以向其在各省的盟友提供权力的方式，避开中央层面的改革反对派。但是，尽管对财政收入再次实施了中央集中控制这一转变，经济改革在20世纪90年代持续进行并在某些领域提速。
尽管在政治改革上明显落后于东方集团国家和苏联，但是可以证明的是，中国是实施经济改革最为成功的社会主义国家。1965至1980年，中国的实际国民生产总值年均增长率仅为6.4%；而1980至1988年，这一数字增至10.4%。1978至1988年，中国国民生产总值增长了两倍，人均国民生产总值翻了一倍。最为显著的进步体现在农村经济领域。按可比价格计算，1978至1990年，农业生产总值年均增长率达6.04%，农村集体企业生产总值增长了26.7%，农民人均纯收入从133.57元增至629.79元，年均增长额41.4元，而此前的28年期间，这一数字仅为3.2元。
在评价有关中国的地区角色和战略的文献时，我们可以发现这样一种渐进的叙述。这一叙述将中国的地区参与描述为3个阶段的进程：在处理地区关系时，中国的方式变得不再怀疑和保守；进而积极地参与地区多边平台；当前则变得缺乏一致性，这似乎导致了一种看法，即（至少是）中国正在变得更加强硬。尽管这一叙述呈现了关于中国在地区参与方面的一种线性演进过程，但是我们认为，这三种不同的参与方式实际上是针对不同的对象和情况，同时运作的。需要关注这其中矛盾和复杂的问题，以便为理解中国的地区参与提供有益的分析依据，而不是简单的将其分为不同的历史阶段。
三 新中国的外交政策
1977年8月中共十一大之后的一段时间，中国领导人仍然试图坚持毛泽东关于“三个世界”的理论。1977年11月1日，《人民日报》发表了题为“毛主席关于三个世界划分的理论是对马列主义的重大贡献”的长篇社论文章。文章重申，两个超级大国是全人类的共同敌人，第三世界是反对帝国主义、殖民主义和霸权主义的主要力量，第二世界是在反对超级大国霸权的最广泛的国际统一战线中可以联合的力量。值得注意的是，文章首次在理论基础上解释了为什么作为对世界和平的威胁，苏联比美国更加危险。
在经济改革启动后，“四个现代化”成为中国领导层最重要的目标。四个现代化是指农业、工业、国防和科技的现代化。这是已故的周恩来总理当时根据毛主席的指示，在1964至1965年以及1975年召开的第四届和第五届全国人大上分别倡议的关于中国经济发展的宏大概念。1978年2至3月召开的第五届全国人大特别重申了这一概念，自此实现现代化成为国家的主要任务。在这一时期，实现现代化和提高人民生活水平的要求成为指导中国外交政策的最重要因素。就经济改革而言，中国最初试图向南斯拉夫学习，之后又向匈牙利学习，后来又向“亚洲四小龙”学习。其对外交政策的影响是，中国必须接受由西方国家制定规则的国际经济秩序。而西方国家和日本也准备向中国的现代化提供友好的支持。独立自主的和平外交政策于是能够得到进一步的加强。
中国的对外关系大概在1992至1993年得到了全面恢复。中国政府努力构建和恢复其所理解的公正的世界和平。因此，中国领导层可以更好地重新定义对世界的看法。随着苏联的解体和两极格局的式微，中国领导人相信，一个新的国际关系格局正在形成。但是，“一超多强”的这一力量格局仅仅是短暂的过渡。与20世纪70年代和20世纪80年代不同的是，中国领导人关于外交政策的权威表述不再对世界大战的威胁进行评论。对这一话题保持沉默可以被解读为不再认为其是迫在眉睫的问题。相反地，中国应当将重心放在发展综合国力的当前和长期的竞争上，不能在这一激烈的竞争中落后。
中国的经济成功和不断上升的国际影响力强化了其对现行国际组织的接受，如联合国、世界银行、国际货币基金组织等，而之前中国认为它们不过是西方帝国列强的工具。此外，中国进一步期望这些国际组织发挥更为重要的作用，并试图通过这些国际组织表达并促进其利益。中国成为利用世界银行贷款最多的国家：截至1995年6月，共获得224亿美元的世界银行贷款。但是，中国仍然回避在这些组织内发挥积极的领导作用。首先，中国认为自己既是一个主要大国同时也是一个发展中国家，因此无意于领导第三世界。其次，中国当时依然缺乏经验丰富的外交官和国际公务员。中国所有的外交政策专家几乎毫无例外地认为，中国必须融入现行的国际体系，以便实现和平崛起。事实上，中国越发展，越需要参与国际体系及其制度安排。和平崛起意味着和平竞争，即基于规则开展竞争；尽管这些规则可能对中国并不公平，但是中国可能并不愿意扮演规则制定者的角色。
当前的国际体系主要是为代表和促进美国的利益而设计的。随着中国以及其他外来国家（如印度）实力的增强，美国将不得不调整这一体系及其制度安排，以适应前者的要求和期望。但是，正如国际货币基金组织甚至是G8集团缓慢改革进程所体现的，美国和欧洲很不情愿进行改革和调整。随着中国开始崛起成为全球大国，其不断增长的力量将以什么形式呈现？换句话说，成为全球霸权国家的中国将会是什么样？在过去的两个世纪，世界出现了两个全球超级大国：1850至1914年的英国和1945年至今的美国。
四 中国经济改革的成功
中国经济改革取得了令人瞩目的成功——在过去15年里，实现了年均9%的经济增速。
中国的权力下放与西方的联邦制在多个重要方面都是不同的。首先，西方的联邦制植根于保护私人权利的明确体系。其次，西方联邦制具有坚实和明确的宪法基础。第三，西方的联邦制几乎总是与政治自由、选举制和民主化相联系。
最近，中国的迅速崛起让分析家开始质疑美国是否能够继续维持霸权。中国现在是世界第二大经济体，能源的消费量已超过美国。中国在2020年之前成为世界最大的经济体似乎可能只是时间问题。此外，与日本和德国不同，中国不只是一个主要的经济大国，它还是一个拥有核武器的国家，也是联合国安理会的五个常任理事国之一。
五 走向“一带一路”倡议
中共十五大提出实施全面改革，对国有企业所有制进行改制。尽管这一方案的官方名称为“共同所有制”，但是其被认为是私有化的代号。考虑到中国经济的体量，这也许是世界上最为宏伟的私有化方案。由于中国经济在近半个世纪的时期始终由国有部门所主导，当这一方案宣布时，其在国内外所产生的巨大震惊效果也就是可以理解的了。对一些人而言，中国的私有化预示着一场波澜壮阔的改革运动。
我们的问题是：为什么中国最终变得比巴西更重要？这是地理位置的原因：即便假设与中国经济增长水平和人口数量相当，巴西也没有与中国同样的连接海洋和陆地的主要海洋线路，而且也不像中国一样主要位于疾病更少、气候更加适宜的温带地区。中国毗邻西太平洋，陆地纵深广阔，与石油和天然气资源丰富的中亚地区相邻。巴西的比较优势相比更少：其位于南美洲，与其他陆地在地理上隔绝。中国已在中亚地区的投资额达250亿美元，投资修建了横跨哈萨克斯坦的一条2000英里的公路。哈萨克斯坦的阿拉木图与中国西部城市乌鲁木齐每日均有航班往来，中国商品充斥中亚市场。
中国在地理上的得天独厚是一个如此基本和明显的因素，以至于在关于近几十年来中国经济活力和国家自信的所有讨论中容易被忽略。
正如在东西伯利亚一样，中国与俄罗斯在中亚地区激烈地争夺势力范围。中国与属于苏联的中亚地区之间的贸易额从1992年的5.27亿美元增至2009年的259亿美元。然而，北京当前体现其影响力的方式则是修建了两条主要管道，一条是从里海横跨哈萨克斯坦抵达新疆的石油管道，另一条是从土库曼斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦边境横跨乌兹别克斯坦和哈萨克斯坦抵达新疆的天然气管道。这再一次证明，大中华挺进英国地缘政治学家麦金德爵士所称的欧亚大陆腹地时，军队是不必要的；重点是其对能源的无尽需求和其少数民族造成的内部危险。中国正在利用各种形式的国家力量，包括军事、外交、经济、商业、军事和人口实力，向其合法陆地和海洋边界之外扩张，从而涵盖中华帝国在其历史鼎盛时期的疆域范围。
中国是世界上最古老的文明之一，文字记载历史可追溯至4000年前。中国人创造的工程奇迹包括三峡大坝、长城、兵马俑等。火药、指南针、造纸术和印刷术是中国古代的四大发明。一位在多个世界500强公司董事会任职的华人投资家兼企业高管说，一个企业的权力与权威取决于其是国有企业、合资企业、外资全资企业还是民营企业。自1978年以来，中国逐步减少了国有企业的数量；国有企业的工业产出占比从30年前的75%降至如今的46%。在许多方面，对改革之前时代的中国政治经济的研究要比对今天的研究简单地多。可以确认的是，中国从来都不是一个纯粹的极权国家。分析家花费了大量时间和精力，试图找到权力的真正中心，特别是对精英派别、军队作用和各省领导权力给予了重点关注。当然，中国领导人在制定国内发展战略时，总是会考虑与超级大国的关系。尽管如此，中国政治不断增长的自主性使得完全在国内层面上研究中国的政治经济成为可能。
就许多方面而言，中国是从1993年开始崛起为全球贸易大国的。从1993年开始，中国的出口额在两年时间里猛增了60%（实际增长率为53%），在五年时间里翻了一倍。这一时期，中国实现了从1993年122亿美元的贸易逆差到次年的54亿美元贸易顺差的转变，到1997年，贸易顺差已增至403亿美元。中国作为全球出口大国的迅速发展，特别是中国与美国和其他发达国家之间贸易顺差的规模，可能无法避免地使得中国面临了改革其双轨制结构并按照“更加公平的”国际规则行事的外部压力。在2001年加入WTO时，中国政府同意取消多年来一直采用的保护其国内行业的多个机制。欧盟成员国中与中国经济关系最为紧密的无疑是德国，其在中国与欧洲整体关系中的分量达47%。这一指标清晰地表明，中国的目标是与世界上最重要的那些国家开展竞争。
六 “一带一路”倡议
“一带一路”倡议是中国国家主席习近平在访问哈萨克斯坦期间于2013年9月7日在纳扎尔巴耶夫大学演讲时提出来的。演讲的主旨是通过经济合作加强欧亚国家间的关系。“一带一路”倡议完全是中国提出的倡议。但是“一带一路”倡议的核心是什么？在2017年9月青年汉学家访华研修计划期间的授课中，笔者了解到该倡议自提出之初一直坚持如下五项原则：
相互尊重、互不侵犯、互不干涉、平等和互惠、和平共处。
在研修期间与中国社会科学院的学者交流过程中，笔者了解到“一带一路”倡议同时建立在以下五项基础上：
● 政治协调
● 基础设施互联互通
● 提升贸易
● 货币支持（货币兑换）
● 和平共处、文化外交
中国有一项全球经济复苏计划。该计划始自中国。从2012年至2020年，中国将完成国家现代化进程和构建中产阶级社会的任务。但是走向世界需要面临更大的挑战。在与中国社科院国际政治理论研究所和国际战略研究所的交流中，笔者了解到，中国实现上述战略，拥有的是行动的实力，而不是进攻的实力。基于这一愿景，中国的“一带一路”倡议完全是一项改善世界各民族之间关系的和平战略。其目标是在经济倡议的基础上将亚洲、欧洲和非洲和平地连接在一起。鉴于世界经济正在缓慢复苏，如果“一带一路”倡议能够成功，其所覆盖的人口将达46亿，占世界的60%，所覆盖的国内生产总值将达20万亿美元，占全球的三分之一。
“一带一路”倡议背景下的国际产能合作基于新的发展理念。中国国家主席习近平在阐述这一倡议时，同时提到了二十国集团杭州峰会期间为达成共识所明确的“五个决心”，即：
● 决心一：为世界经济指明方向，规划路径
● 决心二：创新增长模式，为世界经济注入新动力
● 决心三：完善全球经济金融治理，提高世界经济抗风险能力
● 决心四：重振国际贸易和投资这两大引擎的作用，构建开放型世界经济
● 决心五：推动包容和联动式发展，让二十国集团合作成果惠及全球
对某些学者而言，“一带一路”倡议是对西方全球化的回应，旨在建立一个更加美好的世界。随着中国的崛起和美国全球主导力的相对衰落，中美之间的竞争日益激化。尽管中美经济彼此依存并希望实现双赢而不是零和结局，历史经验显示，大国之间的竞争容易受到非理性因素的影响，从而导致意外甚至是对立的结果。根据西方的理论和国家关系的经验，崛起大国通常会挑战守成大国，而守成大国通常因为担心而针对崛起大国采取防范行动，这就导致了被称为“修昔底德陷阱”（古希腊历史学家修昔底德以其名字创造的术语）的情况发生。如果我们知道古代斯巴达和雅典之间以及一个世纪前英国与德国之间发生的战争，我们就会非常希望中美之间避免冲突。
一般来说，中国的政治哲学倾向于将完整的战略格局作为单一整体的一个组成部分加以考虑。基于这一特点，中国进入21世纪后，寻求的是其文化和制度与世界的文化和制度之间的全球相关性。而“一带一路”倡议则确认了这一点。
七 结语
中国在提出“一带一路”倡议后，其未来的成功将体现哪些特点？通过2017年9月青年汉学家研修计划的学习，笔者在本文列出以下七大特点：
1.中国称其为民族国家，但是准确地说中国是一个以文明为纽带组成的国家；
2.就与亚洲各国以及其他地区国家之间的关系而言，中国倾向于成为未来世界经济的支点；
3.中国对待世界的态度是和平的；
4.中国不仅是亚洲大陆的一个国家，而且是亚洲大陆的一个友好国家；
5.中国政策非常明确；自1949年以来形成了由共产党的坚强领导所代表的十分有效的制度；
6.中国的现代化与其工业化速度是匹配的；
7.中国的政权自1949年以来是稳定和坚实的。换句话说，中国实行的是“具有中国特色的社会主义道路”。
最后一个特点在2017年10月18至25日召开的中共十九大上也得到了重申和确认。中共中央总书记习近平在十九大报告中宣布，中国特色的社会主义进入了新时代。
这是一个不仅对中国而且对世界都无比重要的时代，因为，正如习近平主席指出的，这是一个充满希望同时也充满挑战的时代，没有一个国家可以单独面对。因此他号召各国共同努力，一起构建人类命运共同体。习主席说，中国将与世界各国一同构建人类命运共同体，为全人类和平与发展的崇高事业做出新的更大贡献。
China since the Reform and Opening of 1978 to the“Belt and Road” Initiative
Gjon Boriçi /Albania
Scholar in the Institute of History,Center of Albanian Studies
Ⅰ.Introduction
China’s rapid urbanization over the past four decades has been characterized by a massive amount of surplus rural labor flooding into cities.The level of urbanization in China rose from 17.9 percent in 1978,to 56.1 percent in 2015,with an annual increase of approximately 1.0 percent.[3]The size of the urban population first surpassed the rural population in 2011,when it reached 680 million(UN Department of Economics and Social Affairs,2012).Approximately 123 million included in that number were migrant workers(Project Team of the Development Research Center of the State Council,2010).[4]Over the past 30 years China has experienced rapid economic growth and become the world’s fastest growing economy,with an average growth rate of approximately 9 percent.[5]
The year 2013 was an extraordinary year for China’s diplomacy.The world went through greater changes with profound adjustment going on across the globe involving the shift of the growth model,regional trade arrangements,evolution of the geopolitical landscape and the system of international governance.China’s diplomacy took the initiative to develop fresh ideas and break new ground in light of new trends in the international environment and China’s domestic reform and development agenda.China is exploring a path of conducting major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics.(Wang Yi,Minister of Foreign Affairs,March 2014).[6]
Ⅱ.China and the New Era of Global Governance
Global governance concerns the issue of how the world is governed; that is how global problems are handled and how global order and stability can be ensured,in the absence of an overarching central authority or world government to regulate.To understand global governance,the following question need to be asked:What is global? What is governance? In what ways does governance differ from the conventional notions of politics and government? Why do we study global governance today?[7]
The word global usually refers to a situation that goes beyond the international order or the inter-state system.Its use evokes a wide array of actors in world affairs ranging from individuals and social groups to international organizations and others,apart from states,as a major set of actors.What is governance? Perhaps the most authoritative definition of governance comes from a report compiled but the commission on global governance,consisting of twenty-six prominent members from around the world,chaired by Ingvar Carlsson a former Swedish prime minister,and Shridath Rampal,a former secretary-general of the British Commonwealth.the report,entitled Our Global Neighborhood,published 1995[8],defines governance in a global context as:
“The sum of the many ways individuals and institutions,public and private,manage their common affairs.It is a continuing process through which conflicting or diverse interests may be accommodated and co-operative action may be taken.It includes formal institutions and regimes empowered to enforce compliance,as well as informal arrangements that people and institutions either have agreed to or perceive to be in their interest”.[9]
We need to bear in mind that China can be a problem or it can be the solution,and China may still harbor strong reservations about institutional multilateralism and may not be willing to surrender its sovereign control over rule-making and implementations.[10]
Since the late 1970s China has liberalized most prices,decollectivized agriculture and integrated into world markets.These changes fueled an unprecedented period of growth that increased GDP per capita from $674 in 1978 to $5,086 in 2004.[11] What made this possible? First,some focus on the pre-reform economy’s cellular organization.Rather than a specified,nationwide hierarchy,China’s economy consisted of parallel,diversified provincial economies.This situation reduced dislocations and stimulated competition when markets were introduced.Second,some believe political decentralization encouraged local reforms’ experiments that allowed new ideas to percolate up from the grass roots.Third,some argue decentralization created political checks on the central authorities,limiting predation and convincing investors that reforms would last.Fourth,some suggest fiscal decentralization gave local officials strong incentives to stimulate economic growth.Finally,some contend decentralization helped harden budget constraints on enterprises,forcing them to restructure.[12]
China’s economy as of 1978 was structured in a way particularly conductive to marketization,at least as compared with its northern communist neighbor.[13]In the Soviet Union regional economies were mutually dependent,specialized units that played different roles in the national divisions of labor and were coordinated by central planners.[14]In China,by contrast,provincial economies were most selfsufficient and internally diversified.Fearing military invasion,Mao encouraged local self-sufficiency and devolved much planning and administration to provincial cadres.[15]
Among communist countries,it is true China’s economic administration was relatively decentralized after 1978.For the next decade,one could contrast China’s successes with the reform failures of the more centralized USSR.However,by late 1989 political decentralization in the Soviet Union had clearly outstripped in China.The Baltic republics were racing toward independence,and by early 1991 Gorbatchev was trying to save the Soviet Union as a loose confederation.After its party free regional elections in 1990,Russia was also more politically decentralized than China,with economic policies diverging in the regions.If decentralized explains why reforms worked better in China than the Soviet Union in 1980s,it cannot explain why China fared better Russia in the 1990s.The opposite should have occurred.[16]Administrative decentralization coincided with reform in the 1980s,in part because decentralization was itself a reform promoted by Deng Xiaoping and his supporters,in part because Deng sought to circumvent opposition at the center by empowering his allies in the provinces.but economic reforms continued in the 1990s,accelerating in some areas,despite a shift toward recentralization of control of revenues.[17]
While clearly lagging behind the Eastern bloc countries and the former Soviet Union in political reform,China is arguably the most successful of the socialist states in implementing economic reform.[18]Real GNP grew at an average annual rate of 10.4 percent from 1980 to 1988 compared with only 6.4 percent during 1965-1980; total GNP grew more than twofold between 1978 and 1988.[19]During 1978-88 per capita GNP doubled in real terms.[20]The most impressive strides were in the rural economy.Calculated on the basis of comparable prices,total agricultural output value increased by an average annual rate of 6.04 percent between 1978 and 1990.[21] Output value of rural collective enterprises increased 26.7 percent for that same twelve-year period.[22]Per capita net income among peasants increased from 133.57 to 629.79 Yuan,with an average annual increase of 41.4 Yuan,as compared with only a 3.2 Yuan increase on average for the previous twenty-eight years.[23]
In assessing the literature on China’s regional role and strategy,we can identify an evolving narrative that suggests a three stage process: China’s approach has moved from being skeptical and conservative in its relations with the region.[24]Towards active engagement in the regional multilateral forums,and on to the current lack of consistency that seems to lead to a perception(at least)that China is becoming more assertive.[25]Although this narrative is presented here as a linear evolution of China’s regional engagement,we argue that these three different approaches actually operate simultaneously over time,and across different actors and different situation.Rather,than seeking simplicity and discrete historical epochs,it is the contradictions and complexities that need to be highlighted in order to provide a useful analysis for understanding China’s regional engagements.[26]
Ⅲ.The New China’s Foreign Policy
In the Eleventh Party Congress held in August 1977,Chinese leaders still attempted to embrace Mao Zedong’s theory of the three worlds.On 1 November 1977,the editorial department of Renmin Ribao(People’s Daily)published a lengthy article entitled “Chairman Mao’s Theory of the differentiation of the Three Worlds is a major contribution to Marxism-Leninism”.[27]It reaffirmed that the two superpowers were the common enemy of mankind that the Third World was the main force against imperialism,colonialism and hegemonic,and that the Second World was the force that could be united within the broadest possible international united front against superpower hegemony.The article advocated the exploitation of the contradiction between two superpowers.[28]What was noteworthy was that the article provided for the first time,on a theoretical basis,about why the Soviet Union was more dangerous than the US relations as threat to the world peace.[29]
The idea of Four Modernizations became the most important goal of the Chinese leadership after economic reforms had been launched.The four modernizations are the modernization of agriculture,industry,national defense,and science &technology.It was the grand concept for the development of the Chinese economy advocated by the late Premier Zhou Enlai on the instructions of Chairman Mao at the Third and Fourth NPC held in 1964-1965 and 1975 respectively.The concept was emphatically reaffirmed at the fifth NPC in February to march 1978 and modernization has since been depicted as the main task of the country.[30]In this period,the demand of modernization and improving people’s living standards became the most important factor guiding China’s foreign policy.In terms of economic reforms,China first tried to learn from Yugoslavia,then from Hungary,and then from the “four little dragons of Asia”.The impact of foreign policy was that China had to accept the international economic order whose rules had been defined be the western countries.The Western Countries and Japan,however,were ready to offer China friendly support for its modernization efforts.The independent foreign policy of peace line was able to consolidate.[31]
China’s foreign relations were probably back in full swing by 1992-1993.The Chinese government worked hard at building or restoring its perceived rightful place in the world.[32]And the leadership was then in a better position to redefine the world view.With the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the fading away of bipolarity,Chinese leaders believed that a new pattern of international relations was in the process of emerging.But,this power configuration of “one superpower,a number of major powers” was only transitional.Unlike in the 1970’s and the 1980’s,the Chinese leaders’ authoritative statements on foreign policy did not comment on the danger of a world war.Silence on this topic might be construed as treating this as non-pressing issue.Instead,in its view,China should concentrate on the intermediate and long-term completions in building “comprehensive national power”,and it should not allow itself to fall behind in this fierce completion.
China’s economic success and rising international influence reinforced its acceptance of the existing international organizations,such as the United Nations,World Bank,International Monetary Fund,etc.,which it previously considered to be tools of Western imperialist powers; it further expected these organizations to play a more significant role and intended to articulate and promote its interests through them.It became the recipient of most loans from World Bank,US$22.4 billion by the end of June 1995.[33]However,it was still shying away from active leadership in these organizations.In the first place,it considered itself a major power and a developing country,and it had no intention of leading the Third World.Second,it still suffered from lack of seasoned diplomats and international civil servants.[34] China’s foreign policy experts,almost without exception,argue that China has to integrate with existing international system un order to realize its peaceful rise.In fact,the more developed China becomes,the greater the need to participate in the international system and its institutions.Peaceful rise implies peaceful competition,i.e.,competition according to the rules,although the rules may not be fair to China,and China may not enjoy any role in defining the rules.[35]
The present international system is designed primarily to represent and promote American interests.As China’s power grows,together with that of other outsiders like India,the United States will be obliged to adapt the system and its institutions to accommodate their demands and aspirations,but,as demonstrated be the slowness of reform in the IMF and even the G8,there is great reluctance on the part of both US and Europe.[36]As China begins to emerge as a global power,what forms will its growing strength take? Or,to put it another way,what will a globally hegemonic China look like? Over the past two centuries,there have been two globally dominant powers: Britain between 1850 and 1914,and the United States from 1945 to the present.[37]
Ⅳ.The Success of China’s Economic Reforms
The remarkable success of China’s economic reforms - fostering economic growth averaging 9 percent per year over the past fifteen years - seems to defy conventional wisdom.
The decentralization in China differs from Western federalism in several important respects.First,the latter virtually always roots federalism in an explicit system for protecting individual rights.Second,Western federalism typically has strong,explicit constitutional foundations,third,it is almost always associated with political freedom,representation,and democratization.
More recently,the meteoric rise of China has made analysts question whether the United States still retains hegemony.China’s economy is now the second largest in the world,and already consumes more energy than the United States.It seems only a matter of time until it is the world’s largest economy perhaps prior to 2020.Additionally,unlike Japan and Germany,China’s power is not primary economic -it is a nuclear power with a large army and is one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council.
Ⅴ.Towards “Belt and Road” Initiative
The Fifteenth Congress of the Chinese Communist Party inaugurated a sweeping reform that has been transforming the ownership of state-owned enterprises(SOEs).Though a term “common ownership” was the official name given to the scheme,it was regarded as a coded reference to privatization.Given the size of China’s economy,this is probably the most ambitious privatization plan ever in the world.Bearing in mind that for nearly half a century the Chinese economy has remained based on the dominance of the state sector,it is understandable that the scheme had a shocking psychological effect at home and abroad the moment it was officially declared.For some people,China’s privatization foretold a crusade.[38]
Let’s make the question: why China ultimately more important than Brazil?Because of geographical location: even supposing the same level of economic growth as China and a population of equal size,Brazil does not command the main sea lines of communication connecting oceans and continents as China does;nor does it mainly lie in the temperate zone like China,with a more disease-free and invigorating climate.China fronts the Western Pacific and has depth on land reaching to oil-and natural-gas-rich Central Asia.Brazil offers less of a comparative advantage.It lies isolated in South America,geographically removed from other landmasses.[39]China has invested over $25 billion in Central Asia.It is paying for a two-thousand-mile highway across Kazakhstan.There are daily flights between the Kazakh city of Almaty and the western Chinese city of Urumqi,and Chinese goods fill Central Asian markets.[40]
The fact that China is blessed by geography is something so basic and obvious that it tends to be overlooked in all the discussions about its economic dynamism and national assertiveness over recent decades.[41]
In Central Asia,as in eastern Siberia,China competes fiercely with Russia for a sphere of influence.Trade between China and former Soviet Central Asia has risen from 527 million $ in 1992 to 25.9 billion $ in 2009.[42]But the means of Beijing’s sway will for the moment be two major pipelines,one carrying oil from the Caspian Sea across Kazakhstan to Xinjiang,and the other transportation natural gas from the Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan border,across Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to Xinjiang.Again,no troops will be necessary as Greater China extends into Mackinder’s Eurasian heartland,the upshot of an insatiable demand for energy and the internal danger posed by its own ethnic minorities.[43]China is using all forms of its national power - political,diplomatic,economic,commercial,military,and demographic -to expand virtually beyond its legal land and sea borders in order to encompass the borders of imperial China at its historic high points.[44]
China is one of the oldest civilizations worldwide,with a written history dating over 4,000 years.Engineering feats include the Three Gorges Dam,the Great Wall of China,and the Terracotta Warriors.China is the birthplace of gunpowder,the compass,papermaking,and printing.[45]According to one Chinese investor and executive who serves on the board of several Fortune 500 companies,where power and authority reside depends on whether it is a state-owned enterprise(SOE),joint venture,wholly-owned company,or private company.[46]Since 1978,China has gradually reduced the number of SOEs,down from over 75 % of China’s industrial output thirty years ago to 46% today.[47]In many respects,studying China’s political economy in the pre-reform era was much simpler than it is today.To be sure,China was never a purely totalitarian state,and analysts have spent considerable time and effort trying to find the real locus of power,with particular emphasis on elite factionalism,the role of the military,and the power of provincial leaders.And of course,China’s leaders always had relations with the superpowers in mind when defining domestic development strategies.Nevertheless,the increasingly autarkic nature of Chinese politics made it possible to study China’s political economy almost entirely in domestic terms.[48]
In many respects,it was only in 1993 that China began to emerge as a global trading power.From 1993,exports increased by 60 percent in two years(53 percent in real terms),and doubled in the space of five years.[49]In the process,a US$12.2 billion trade deficit in 1993 was transformed into a US$5.4 billion surplus the following year,with the trade surplus rising to US$40.3 billion in 1997.[50]The rapid growth of China as a global exporter - and in particular,the size of the Chinese trade surplus with the United States and other developed states - has perhaps inevitably brought external pressure for China to reform its dualistic structure and to behave by “fairer” international rules.[51]In joining WTO in 2001,Chinese authorities agreed to give up many of the mechanisms that had been used to protect domestic actors in previous years.Among the countries within the EU that China has more economic relations is beyond any doubt Germany with 47% of the whole package of China’s relations in Europe.[52]This is a clear index that China aims to compete with the most important countries in the world.
Ⅵ.“Belt and Road” Initiative
Belt and Road initiative was initiated as an process on September 7th2013,from President Xi Jinping’s speech made during a visit in Kazakhstan,at the Nazarbayev University.[53]The main theme of the speech was the aim to strengthen the Eurasian relations through economic cooperation.The Belt and Road initiative is totally a Chinese initiative.But what essentially is Belt and Road initiative? During the classes in the China Studies program in September 2017,this initiative as is in its beginnings upholds five principles which are:
Mutual respects; Mutual-nonaggression; Mutual non-interference; Equality and mutual benefit; Peaceful coexistence.[54]
During the talking’s in the VPYS program in the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,B&R initiative is also based on five fields:
Political Coordination; Infrastructure connectivity; Enhanced trade; Currency support(exchange); People’s exchange,cultural diplomacy.
China has a global economy recover plan.This plan starts with China.From 2012 to 2020,China would conclude the process of its society modernization and the enforcement of middle class structure.But to take on the world,requires to face big challenges.With the conversation I’ve made with the Department of International Politics Theory and with the Department of International Strategy in CASS,China to fulfill this strategy,has the power to act but not the power to attack.Based on this vision,China’s Belt and Road initiative is totally a peaceful strategy to improve the relations among the peoples of the world.The goal is to peacefully connect,Asia,Europe and Africa based on economic initiative.As the world economy is slowly recovering the Belt and Road initiative if it succeeds,would cover a population of nearly 4.6 billion which is more than 60% of the world’s population,and would a have a total GDP of $20 trillion,about 1/3 of the global GDP.[55]
International cooperation on production capacity against the background of the Belt and Road initiative is a based on a new philosophy of development.The Chinese president Xi Jinping,during the presentation of this initiative also spoke about five “determinations” of the G20 parties to introduce consensus during the Hangzhou Summit.These determinations were to:
1.Be determined to identify the direction of the world’s economy and plan routes;
2.Be determined to innovate the manner of growth so as to inject new impetus into world’s economy;
3.Be determined to improve the global economy and economic governance so as to enhance the capability of the world’s economy for withstanding risks;
4.Be determined to re-invigorate two engines,which are international trade and investment,so as to build and open world economy;
5.Be determined to promote inclusive and interdependent development,and render the cooperation achievements made by the G20 beneficial to the whole world.[56]
For some scholars,Belt and Road initiative is a response to Western globalization to build a better world.[57]With the rise of China and the relative decline of the US’s global dominance,the competition between China and the US has intensified.Despite the interdependence and the hope for arriving at a win-win situation instead of a zero-sum game,historical experiences show that competition among major countries can easily be affected by irrational factors,with unexpected and even adverse results.According to Western theories and experiences of international relations,rising powers often challenge established ones,and the latter often fear and take precautions against the former,leading to a situation known as the Thucydides trap,a term coined by a Greek historian.[58]If we see what happened in ancient times between Sparta and Athens,or a century ago between England and Germany,is well hoped to avoid a clash between China and USA.
In general,Chinese statesmanship has a tendency to view the entire strategic landscape as a part of a single whole.[59]With this distinction China enters the XXI century as a country claiming global relevance for the proper culture and institutions with the culture and world institutions.The Belt and Road initiative confirms this.
Ⅶ.Conclusion
What will be the characteristics of China’s success following Belt and Road initiative? There are seven characteristics that I would like to collocate in this paper which I learned during my China studies in September 2017:
1.China describes itself a nation-state,but in true is a civilization-state
2.China in its relations in Asia and not only there,tends to promote itself as the fulcrum of the future world’s economy;
3.China’s attitude towards the world is shown peaceful;
4.China is more than a state within a continent; China represents the good part of the Asian continent;
5.China’s policy is very much specific; it’s a highly competent institution represented by a strong party leadership since 1949;
6.The modernity in China is matched by the speed of the country’s industrialization;
7.China’s regime since 1949 is stable and concrete.In other words,was promoted “Socialism with Chinese characteristics”.
The last characteristic was also affirmed and confirmed by the 19thParty Congress which was held in Beijing in October 18-25,2017.[60]In the report he delivered at the opening of the 19thNational Congress of the Communist Party of China,Xi Jinping,the general secretary of the CPC Central Committee,announced that socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era.
It is an era that is not only of tremendous importance to China but also to the world.For it is an era that,as President Xi Jinping pointed out,is not only full of hope but also full of challenges,which no country alone can tackle.Hence his call for countries to work together to build a community of shared future for all mankind.[61]President Xi said China will work with other nations to build a global community with a shared future,and make new and greater contributions to the noble cause of peace and development for all humanity.[62]